Is Pocket PC a Stop-Gap?

[Russ Smith]

Jeff Kervin thinks that Microsoft is allowing Pocket PC OS to languish, perhaps eventually to let it die.

[Eto]

I doubt that'll happen.. I'd be more likely to believe that PPCPE's will become small enough for the consumer to use it as their phone (which is already happening).. I CANNOT think that someone would WANT to have both a phone and a pda connecting via bluetooth or some other medium.. I see more of a convergence, where these devices become the same thing.

The smartphone & PPCPE are just stepping stones to making more of a mixed market between PDA's and phones...

I'd love to see this go even further to have more of a 'virtual wallet' type of idea, where you don't have to carry any money or credit cards, etc.. just one device that does it all... I would see this as making life easier for everyone.. less == more! Plus, with the better security with finger scans, or even retina scans with built-in cameras would make having everything in one device more secure.

I really can't wait to see where things end up in 5 or 10 years.. Though it's really a shame that even though the technology exists and can be done TODAY, it just takes WAY too long for these to come to fruitition.

[The Kraken]

At some point in the not too distant future, the pocketpc will be very different than it is now or, more likely, it's functionality will be consumed by and trumped by something along the lines of the new Archos device. Imagine that running the tabletpc OS. Of course, by then the device will be faster, store more and be thinner and lighter. Technology is great!

[Russ Smith]

My thinking has not too much to do with Microsoft's strategy, but more with a sort of device philosophy. I do think that the Tablet PC and the Pocket PC will eventually converge as technology alllows full computing power in a smaller package. What I'd really like to see is the screen becoming a customizable option so you could pick the size of screen you want to work with. The computing module would slide into a variety of screen carriers, at least one of which would be pocket-sized. That does imply the eventual demise of Pocket PC OS per se, since you'd really want the full desktop OS for when you're using the device as a lap-top/tablet/whatever. Obviously that's a ways off and we'll likely see several more generations of Pocket PC in the interim.

As far as the phone end of things, I don't particularly like converged devices. You usually end up with a device that's fairly good at one side of things and not that good at the other. As I've pointed out before, a phone needs to be relatively small to allow you to carry it easily. A PPC needs a relatively large screen to view information. The two are somewhat antithetical. If the screen issue is solved (maybe by using an eye-piece or something like that), then I'd still rather see a computing module and a cell-phone module that connect easily. An integrated phone is harder to upgrade and can also make it harder to change carriers.

I agree with Jeff that the phones will eventually eat up the carry your outlook info with you demographic, but PPCs (and even Palms) are doing far more than that now. That is where the MS strategy becomes important. If they do concentrate on the more lucrative smartphone market, allowing PPC to languish, then we may very well see a reverse of Pocket PCs slow erosion of Palm market share.

The one thing not mentioned in the article is the role of OEMs in Pocket PC production. HP produced the first combination WiFi/BlueTooth PPC last year and now Microsoft is building the combined ability into the next OS. It's possible that the innovations of the OEMs will drive Pocket PC OS in the same way that Sony innovations drove Palm for a long time.

[Pony99CA]

I won't spout off too much about strategy here (surprise!), but I have three comments about Jeff's piece.

First, why publish this now? Is waiting until he's actually used Pocket PC 2003 too difficult? (Or has he used it?)

Second, comparisons with Microsoft Bob are just foolish. Bob was roundly laughed at it, only had one release that I'm aware of and disappeared within a year.

This will be the fourth version of Microsoft's pocket OS (if you count the Palm-sized PCs as one version), it has lasted for over three years and nobody's laughing at it.

Finally, the Pocket PC won't be Microsoft's Newton -- because that role is already taken. Remember Handheld PCs? :)

Steve

[Pony99CA]

Originally posted by Russ Smith
My thinking has not too much to do with Microsoft's strategy, but more with a sort of device philosophy. I do think that the Tablet PC and the Pocket PC will eventually converge as technology alllows full computing power in a smaller package. What I'd really like to see is the screen becoming a customizable option so you could pick the size of screen you want to work with. The computing module would slide into a variety of screen carriers, at least one of which would be pocket-sized.
I agree that this will probably happen, too. Look at devices (concepts, really) like the OQO and IBM's Metapad. They will need a few things that PDAs have to replace Pocket PCs, though.

First, instant on capability. Who wants to wait for a PDA to boot up?

Second, I think they'll still need some minimal input abilities like buttons and a directional pad.

If they actually support an on-screen cursor, though, a built-in mini-trackball would work instead of a d-pad.

Third, and related to the first two, you'll want to be able to do voice memos at the push of a button.

Fourth, they'll still need a stylus and touchscreen for ink, drawing and note taking. I think using a stylus for drawing and a trackball for selecting and moving objects would be awesome (less wear and tear on the screen due to drag-and-drop).

Steve